Thursday, December 31, 2009

Ten predictions for 2010

This post is inspired by Iain Dale.

Kauto Star will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I think he is a slightly better horse than Denman, but if the ground turns heavy, then I might change my mind.

Two: There will NOT be a General Election in the Republic of Ireland in 2010.

The Greens won't force one because they would probably be wiped out of the Dail; the Fianna Fail backbenchers, who are most in danger of losing their seats, will not want to force one either.

Three: David Cameron will be PM of the UK by December 31st next.

Possibly the biggest certainty of 2010. Only thing that can stop him is a Labour-planned-and-backed military coup.

Four: Unemployment in the Republic of Ireland will dip below 400,000.

An economic recovery is coming, but it will be slow.

Five: Tony McCoy will NOT win the Aintree Grand National.

I would be delighted to get this one wrong, but the fact that he is retained by JP McManus, I honestly feel, could work to his disadvantage this time. He would be required to ride JP's runner, and, with the possible exception of King John's Castle, JP really doesn't have any staying chasers with a strong chance this time.

Six: Spain will take home the Jules Rimet Trophy from South Africa.

They have so many good players, and no weak spots. The biggest dangers are Brazil.

Seven: France will not get out of the group stage.

This has happened before, and Mexico and Uruguay, I predict, will come out of that group. It also highlights the reality that the Republic of Ireland team are an ordinary side by international standards.

Eight: In the US November elections, the Republicans will make gains, but will not take control of the House of Representatives.

Only about a third of the Senate seats are up, and the Democrat lead is too big.

Nine: Ireland will win Zero medals at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

Come to think of it, this is a bigger certainty than Number Three above.

Ten: Kieran Fallon will ride a Group One winner trained by Aidan O'Brien.

I admit that after the French drugs suspension, just after Dylan Thomas won the Arc, I honestly did not think we would see him riding on a racecourse again. Either injury/suspension to Johnny Murtagh, or more likely the fact that Ballydoyle can sometimes run a few horses in a big race, and the possibility that Murtagh might choose the wrong one to ride, will give the Clareman the chance to fully mark his rehabilitation.

I invite everybody else to join in. Gloating over another persons lack of prediction skills is not allowed.

Happy New Year!